Climatology also known as climate science is basically the study of climate. Scientifically scientists have gone further to describe climatology in different ways and carried out a number of scientific research to account for various climatic changes on earth and even on other planets and the radiant objects that is the moon and the sun. With respect to this, scientists have tried to find out the temperature variations and other climatic conditions with respect to atmospheric pressure and why they differ from one city to another
Climatology is a branch of atmospheric sciences and to some extent a field of geography, since besides it dealing with atmospheric concerns, factors such as temperature, humidity etc. it employs the geographical concepts together with the scientific concepts to ensure satisfied data or information is derived from the study or rather the scientific research. Climatology is an important aspect to the society at large as it aids weather forecasting which serves sermon people of the future expected weather changes and thus they can easily plan their activities appropriately.
Weather forecasting today has taken a new twist with the introduction of the new technology in that weather forecasting today has been dominated by technology which has aided more accurate and reliable information about future expected weather and climatic changes. Before the new technology, there are a number of analog techniques that were employed in weather forecasting. These include such techniques as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) also known as the Arctic oscillation (AO), the NorthernPaciﬁc (NP) Index, the Paciﬁc decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Interdecadal Paciﬁc Oscillation (IPO).
These techniques were best employed or rather utilized with the help of a number of climatic models. The models together with the techniques were key in helping the scientist to make future climatic projections as well as weather projections.
Weather is basically the condition of the atmosphere over a period of time usually less than a year. Weather can be measured daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, half yearly or yearly. The weather is recorded daily for instance the amount of rainfall is recorded daily as well as the atmospheric temperature. On the other hand climate is the atmospheric condition over a long period of time usually more than one year. The climatic conditions of a place is regarded as the weather conditions of that particular areas studied over a long period, recorded either on daily basis, weekly, monthly etc. and analyzed to give the climatic condition of the particular place for the specified period.
This study sought to analyze the average temperatures of London and Edinburg as well as giving a comparison between the temperatures. The study wet further to predict the future temperatures of the two towns for two months, August and September in the year 2018.
Scientifically this can be referred to as a Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The place is specifically a scientific Centre whose main purpose to study weather and record the daily findings that will aid the analysis of the climatic conditions of the various places, towns and continents. The stations are usually agencies or agents or otherwise act as agencies to national bodies such as the national oceanic and atmospheric administration’s office of the U.S. in the United States, the climate prediction center has its headquarters at College Park, Maryland. The center was started in the late 18th century by the United States army.
The station further became part of the United States Weather Bureau and its name changed to Weather Bureau Climate and Crop Services after becoming part of the United States weather Bureau. There are a number of climatic prediction products from the climatic center in the USA. These include GOES-13, GOES-15, Meteosat-7, Meteosat-9 and MTSAT-2 as shown in the diagram below:
Normally a climate center is located on a generally flat land this aid the recording of the weather conditions. For instance the location of a rain gauge needs a very land for its location to allow for accurate collection of the amount rainfall per downfall. The same applies to other instruments like the windvane and windsock which in turn require a gently slope for location.
Composition of a climate center or weather station
An ideal climate center comprise of a number of instruments used to measure the weather conditions as well as gather data from scientific and other electronic data collection instruments. A weather station or rather a climate center comprise of a number of instruments and with recent technological developments and advancements in technology, a climate center will always need to have a satellite dish. The dish receives and transfers data from the space satellites the super computers that code and analyze the data thus giving information concerning the climatic condition. The satellites are used to collect data from all over the world thus making it easy to reach almost all places of the world and even outside the earth gathering data concerning the different phenomenon.
To determine the temperature of a place of a place for instance, the satellite records the amount of warmth or cold and sends a signal to the dish where its send to the super computers for analysis and recording. This is done repeatedly over a long period of time and recorded together with the trends and in turn they comprise the climatic condition of a particular selected area.
The center further encompasses such instruments as:
The rain gauge. This is an instrument used in measuring the amount rainfall of a place. Normally it’s located in open ground away from any tall buildings or trees, this serves to prevent splashing of water into the rain gauge enhancing accuracy of the instrument. The instrument is normally raised above the ground this serves to prevent splash water from entering the gauge thus ensuring accuracy. After a downpour, the instrument is always emptied and again for next upcoming rainfall. When is done repeatedly for a period more than a year, it comprises the climatic condition of the particular place with respect to the rainfall patters of the particular area of interest.
The wind vane. This is used to measure the direction of wind. The instrument is located in the open air away from tall trees and buildings as well this serves to ensure accuracy of the instrument
The windsock. Its used to measure the strength and direction of wind as well. Its one of the weather instruments that measures two aspects of weather that direction and strength of wind. Just as the wind vane and the windsock, its also placed in the open air to guarantee effectiveness of the instrument.
The anemometer. This measures the speed of wind. Just as the wind vane, wind sock and the rain gauge, it is also placed in the open air to ensure accuracy of the instruments.
Stevensons screen. This is an instrument that houses or shelters meteorological instruments such as the thermometers, hygrometer, psychrometer, dew cell, barometer and a thermograph. The thermometers measures the temperature of a place or area which is the coldness or hotness or rather warmness of a place. The hygrometer used to measure the relative in the air which is expressed as a percentage and comprises the amount of moisture or water vapor in the air. The Psychrometer measures the relative humidity in the air by the use of two thermometers i.e. the dry bulb thermometer and the wet bulb thermometer. The dry bulb thermometer measures temperature by being exposed to air while the wet bulb thermometer measures temperature by its bulb being dipped in a liquid. The barometer is used to measure atmospheric pressure. The dry cells are used to determine the dew point and consist of a heating element surrounded by lithium chloride.
The Stevenson screen is a specially designed to hold meteorological instruments. Its size varies with respect to the to the number of instruments that its designed to hold. The instruments is louvered to allow for air circulation. Its painted white to reflect away execss light. Its normally raised above the ground level so as to prevent it from heat from the ground.
The climate predictions and services are very important and have a variety of users. There are such users as the government, the general public and the private industry. The climatic predictions are important as they;
Help the government to plan for future climatic changes that are deemed to occur in future. Such include planning for a prolonged expected drought, expected high rains that would lead to floods and thus people displaced. The government sets aside funds for such anticipated calamities this proves how important meteorology is to the government and other stakeholders.
Helps people in planning for the future events. With the climatic forecasts, planning for such events as the international Olympics, world cup is made easy as planners are aware of the expected weather changes thus scheduling is properly done and the activities will be a success without much altering the stipulated program or time frame of the activities.
Sailors are made to understand when to travel and when not to as they know when the tornadoes, hurricanes and changes in the sea dynamics thus thus travelling is surely aided.
Explorers have access to the required information of when to travel and explore since all the times and expected weather changes are analyzed and stipulated thus they can easily avoid the weather changes as well as effects associated or the limitations of the adverse weather changes.
The general public are meant to understand the when to expect cold weathers or expect warm weathers and thus plan appropriate clothing for the different weather times.
Farmers greatly benefit from weather forecasting as they know when to expect rains and thus they can easily plan when to cultivate, plant and harvest.
Scientists are also meant to understand when to visit other places like the moon and explore other planets.
Climatology proves to be a very important aspect in the lives of people as without it life would prove to be very difficult in one way or the other. For instance planning for such events as Olympics and world cup would be so difficult without weather forecasting. in agriculture, energy, transportation, water resources, and health. To ensure quality climatic services, there are continual research, innovation and renovation which serves to increase the use of models and interactions with user groups.
Objectives of the study
To determine the annual average temperature of London
To determine the annual average temperature of Edinburg
To determine the measure of skewness in the temperature distributions for London
To determine the measure of skewness in the temperature distributions for Edinburg
To make future predictions of temperature in August and September for the year 2018 of London
To make future predictions of temperature in August and September for the year 2018 of Edinburg
Questions of the study
The study was guided by the following questions;
What is the annual average temperature of London?
What is the annual average temperature of Edinburg?
What is the measure skewness in the temperature distributions for London?
What is the measure of skewness in the temperature distributions for Edinburg?
What will be the temperatures in August and September for the year 2018 of London?
What will be the temperatures in August and September
Hypothesis of the study
H01: The annual average temperature of London is 12 degrees.
H11: The annual average temperature of London is not 12 degrees
H02: The annual average temperature of Edinburg is 11 degrees
H12: The annual average temperature of Edinburg is not 11degrees
H03: The annual temperature distribution of London is symmetrical
H13: The annual temperature distribution of London is asymmetrical
H04: The annual temperature distribution of Edinburg is symmetrical
H14: The annual temperature distribution of Edinburg is asymmetrical
H05: The future temperatures of London in August and September will be 20 and 18 respectively
H15: The future temperatures of London in August and September won’t be 20 and 18 respectively
H06: The future temperatures of Edinburg in August and September will be 18 and 16 respectively
H16: The future temperatures of Edinburg in August and September will not be 18 and 16 respectively
Sources of data
The study used secondary data from AccuWeather in the UK.
According to Chinese scientist Shen Kuo (1031–1095), climates naturally shifted history over an enormous span of time. He observed petriﬁed bamboos found underground near Yanzhou (modern day Yan’an, Shaanxi province), a dry climate area unsuitable for the growth of bamboo. A number of scholars have studied about climate. Edmund Halley, published a map of the trade winds in 1686 after a voyage to the southern hemisphere. Benjamin Franklin (1706–1790) ﬁrst mapped the course of the Gulf Stream for use in sending mail from the United States to Europe. Francis Galton (1822–1911) invented the term anticyclone. Helmut Landsberg (1906–1985) fostered the use of statistical analysis in climatology, which led to its evolution into a physical science.
The formal study of climate started in Greece by the Greek. The word climate is derived from the Greek word klima, meaning “slope,” referring to the slope or inclination of the Earth’s axis. The ﬁrst distinct climate treaties were the works of Hippocrates, who wrote airs, water and places in 400 B.C.E. map of the average temperature over 30 years. Data sets were formed from the long term average of historical weather parameters sometimes called ‘climatology’. There are various approaches to climatology these include; paleoclimatology, this seeks to reconstruct past climates by examining records such as ice cores and tree rings (dendroclimatology). Paleotempestology which uses the records of paleoclimatology to help determine hurricane frequency over millennia. The study of contemporary map of the average temperature over 30 years, data sets formed from the long term average of historical weather parameters can as well be referred to as climatology. Climate comprises meteorological data accumulated over many years such as records of rainfall, temperature and atmospheric composition.
Knowledge of the atmosphere and its dynamics is as well embodied in models, either statistical or mathematical, which help by integrating different observations and testing how they ﬁt together. Modeling is used for understanding past, present and potential future climates. Historical climatology is the study of climate with respect to human history and thus focuses only on the last few thousand years.
Climate research is very hard and difficult due to the large scale, long time periods, and complex processes which govern climate. Climate is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as differential equations. These equations are joint and nonlinear thus approximate solutions are obtained by using numerical methods to create global climate models. Climate is sometimes modeled as a stochastic process but this is generally accepted as an approximation to processes that are otherwise too complicated to analyze.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation
This is one of the global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. The Paciﬁc Ocean signatures, El Niño and La Niña are important temperature ﬂuctuations in surface waters of the tropical Eastern Paciﬁc Ocean. El Niño, is a Spanish name for ‘the little boy’, referred to as the Christ child, because the phenomenon is usually noticed around Christmas time in the Paciﬁc Ocean off the west coast. La Niña impacts South America. La Niña means ‘the little girl’. Their effect on climate in the subtropics and the tropics are so profound. The Southern Oscillation (SO) reﬂects the monthly or seasonal ﬂuctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The most recent occurrence of El Niño started in September 2006 and lasted until early 2007. ENSO is a set of interacting parts of a single global system of coupled oceanatmosphere climate ﬂuctuations that come about as a consequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulation. ENSO is the most prominent known source of inter annual variability in weather and climate around the world. The cycle occurs every two to seven years, with El Niño lasting nine months to two years within the longer term cycle, though not all areas globally are affected. ENSO has signatures in the Paciﬁc, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
In the Paciﬁc, during major warm events, El Niño warming extends over much of the tropical Paciﬁc and becomes clearly linked to the SO intensity, while ENSO events are basically in phase between the Paciﬁc and Indian Oceans, ENSO events in the Atlantic Ocean lag behind those in the Paciﬁc by 12–18 months. The countries mostly affected by the countries most affected by ENSO events are developing countries within tropical sections of continents with economies that are largely dependent upon their agricultural and ﬁshery sectors as a major source of food supply, employment, and foreign exchange. New capabilities to predict the onset of ENSO events in the three oceans can have global socioeconomic impacts. While ENSO is a global and natural part of the Earth’s climate, whether its intensity or frequency may change as a result of global warming is an important concern. Low-frequency variability has been evidenced: the quasi decadal oscillation (QDO). Inter-decadal (ID) modulation of ENSO (from PDO or IPO) might exist. This could explain the socalled protracted ENSO of the early 1990s.
North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)
The climatic indices are based on a number of climatic conditions but the NAO indices are based on the difference of normal sea level pressure (SLP) between Ponta Delgada, Azores and Iceland. The SLP anomalies at each station are made normal by division of each seasonal mean pressure by the long term mean (1865–1984) standard deviation to avoid the series of being dominated by the greater variability of the northern of the two stations. Positive values of the index indicate stronger westerlies than the average over the middle latitudes.
Maden- Julian Oscillation
Different poles and regions have different oscillation weather patterns and this seems to be a pattern of very high rainfall that normally occurs on plateaus. The oscillation is characterized by an east progression of large regions enhanced by frozen tropical rainfall observed mainly over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The abnormal rainfall is usually seen or observed over the western Indian Ocean and remains evident as it dominates over the very warm oceanwaters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall becomes very unpredictable as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific even though it keeps repeating over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. It is then followed by the phase of wet enhanced convection and precipitation where convection is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60days. The MJO is also known as the 30- to 60-day oscillation, 30- to 60-day wave, or the intra seasonal oscillation.
Northern Annular Mode (NAM)
There are a number of EOF but this is the first EOF of northern hemisphere winter SLP data from the tropics and subtropics. It details 23% of the average winter (December–March) variance, and it is dominated by the NAO structure in the Atlantic. Despite there being some subtle differences from the regional pattern over the Atlantic and Arctic, the main difference is larger amplitude anomalies over the NorthPacific of the same sign as those over the Atlantic. This gives the NAM amore annular (or zonally symmetric) structure.
Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)
This is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that shifts phases on at least inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years. The PDO is taken as a warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. During a positive phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms, during a negative phase, the pacific becomes warm and the eastern ocean becomes cool. This occurs by the mechanism which the pattern lasts over several years though it has not been identified clearly. It is assumed that a thin layer of warm water during summer may shield deeper cold waters. To detect the phenomena a PDO signal has been reconstructed to 1661 through tree-ring chronologies in the Baja California area.
There are a variety of interactions in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate these interactions. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the weather and climate system to projections of future climate. All the climate models balance, or nearly balance, incoming energy as short wave electromagnetic radiation to the earth with models outgoing energy as long wave (infrared) electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Unbalance in the climatic system results in a change in the average temperature of the earth. The recent most discussed models have been those relating temperature to emissions of carbon dioxide (greenhouse gas). These models predict an upward trend in the surface temperature record, as well as a more rapid increase in temperature at higher latitudes.
The climate models fall in different classes or rather ranges, from relatively simple to quite complex models. A simple model treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally. Atmosphere, ocean, sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.
Climatology and meteorology
Meteorology is the study of short term weather systems lasting up to a few weeks, climatology studies the differences with meteorology frequency and trends of those systems. It studies the period of weather events over years to decades, as well as changes in long-term average weather patterns, in relation to atmospheric conditions. Climatologists study both the nature of climates, local, regional or global and the natural or human-induced factors that cause climates to change. Climatology puts focus on the past occurrences as a pivot for studies and can help predict future climate change.
Climatology draws interest on such factors as atmospheric boundary layer, circulation patterns, heat transfer (radiative, convective and latent), interactions between the atmosphere and the oceans and land surface (particularly vegetation, land use and topography), and the chemical and physical composition of the atmosphere.
Climatology and weather forecasting
The analog technique of weather forecasting is one of the most complicated method of weather prediction as it requires remembering a previous weather event which is expected to be a reflection of an upcoming weather condition. It is a difficult technique to use since there is rarely a perfect reflection for an event in the future. This type of weather forecasting pattern recognition remains a useful method of observing rainfall over data voids such as oceans with knowledge of how satellite imagery relates to precipitation rates over land as well as the forecasting of precipitation amounts and distribution in the future. An alternative to this method is used in medium range forecasting, known as teleconnections, which is used in the systems in other locations to help pin down the location of another system within the surrounding regime. One method of using teleconnections is by using climate indices such as ENSO-related phenomena.
From the literature no study had studied the climatic condition of London and Edinburg thus forming the study topic for my research or dissertation.
Data presentation and analysis
Annual average of temperature in London
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The average temperature of London is evenly distributed throughout the years. The average temperature for the years was 12dgrees centigrade. The highest average temperature was in 2006 and it was at 12.4 degrees while the lowest annual average temperature was in 2010 and it was 11degrees. From the findings we accept the null hypothesis and reject the alternative hypothesis. It’s thus evident that the annual average temperature of London is 12 degrees centigrade.
Annual average of temperature in Edinburg
The average temperature of Edinburg is evenly distributed throughout the years. The average temperature for the years was 10 degrees centigrade. The highest average temperature was in 2004 and it was at 10.8 degrees while the lowest annual average temperature was in 2010 and it was 8.4 degrees. From the findings we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. It’s thus evident that the annual average temperature of Edinburg is lower than 11degrees centigrade as it is 10 degrees centigrade
Bell shape distribution for Edinburgh
From the figure the annual temperature distribution is symmetrical since the frequencies increase up to 0.85 and then decrease forming a normal distribution. This implies that the distribution is neither positively nor negatively skewed. We therefore accept the null hypothesis and reject the alternative hypothesis.
Bell shape distribution for London
From the figure, the annual temperature distribution is asymmetrical. The distribution is negatively skewed as the frequencies form unbalanced pattern and the curve shows a prolonged tail to the left. More than half of the area of the distribution curve is to the left of the mode of 12. We therefore reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
Comparison of annual averages for the two cities
Year Annual Average Temperature(oC) Annual Average Temperature(oC)
2000 9.4 11.9
2001 9.1 11.6
2002 9.7 12.4
2003 9.8 12.5
2004 10.6 12
2005 9.9 12.1
2006 9.8 12.6
2007 9.9 12.1
2008 9.5 11.6
2009 9.7 12.2
2010 8.5 11
From the above table and chart London recorded the highest annual average temperature from 2000 to 2010 compared to Edinburg which recorded a relatively lower annual average temperature from 2000 to 2010.
Future predictions of temperature in August and September 2018, for both cities. The data was gathered from Accu Weather in the UK.
From the findings of the study, its evident that the temperature distribution of Edinburg is symmetrical and as such there are no great fluctuations in the temperature distribution as the temperature is evenly distributed. It’s thus expected that the temperatures in Edinburg for August and September 2018 will be 15 and 13 respectively. We thus reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
The study findings reveal that the temperature distributions for London are asymmetrical and as such they are they fluctuating steadily with a very small margin. Its expected that the temperatures for August and September 2018 will be 17 and 14 respectively. We thus reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
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